CEEMEA Strategy Notes: Poland: who owns local bonds after a volatile first quarter?

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Strategy Notes: Poland: who owns local bonds after a volatile first quarter?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Europe Emerging Markets Date

Poland 14 May 2026

CEEMEA Strategy

Notes

Poland: who owns local bonds after a

volatile first quarter?

Anna Friedemann

Key takeaways Research Analyst

n Foreigners have increased their holdings of Polish local bonds by PLN 25bn +44-20-754-11816

in Q1-26 to now PLN 194bn, marking the best three-month period on record

despite the volatile backdrop in March. Christian Wietoska

Strategist

n However, foreign demand has not meaningfully exceeded high supply from +44-20-754-52424

the MoF and the foreign share is only up by close to +1pp to now 14% since

Naman Mishra

the end of last year, leaving it unchanged versus March 2025.

Research Associate

n Foreign investors hold mostly fixed bonds with a preference for the 5Y to

10Y part of the curve. Positioning is currently highest in the former 10Y

Ankit Jain

benchmark DS1035 (31.7%) with foreign investors likely to similarly

embrace the new 10Y benchmark, DS0436, that was issued in late April.

n Additionally, foreign investors like the two linkers, holding 23% and 48% in

IZ0831 and IZ0836, respectively - notably high levels compared to other EM

linkers.

n The investor breakdown by geography does not account for the largest

investment vehicles, omnibus accounts, but still provides some insights.

There are three interesting takeaways from the data: First, US investors

have re-engaged in Q1 and increased their share by +0.8pp to now 9%,

possibly reflecting a more constructive euro view. Second, European

investors have meaningfully increased their share by +2.8pp to now 47%,

possibly reflecting an uptick in crossover flows, with investors from

Luxembourg, Ireland, and Germany the key drivers.