Freight for Thought: Montgomery case implications; + large-scale Transports (cleanest: + KNX, JBHT)

Research evidence excerpt

Freight for Thought: Montgomery case implications; + large-scale Transports (cleanest: + KNX, JBHT)

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Transportation Freight for Thought 14 May 2026

Montgomery case implications; + large-scale

Richa Harnain, CFA Transports (cleanest: + KNX, JBHT)

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-6285

This morning, the long-awaited Supreme Court decision around the

MONTGOMERY v. CARIBE TRANSPORT II, LLC case was released. For context, Megan Makini

the crux of the case was centered around whether brokers should be held liable Research Associate

+1-212-2501458 for motor carrier accidents involving carriers they hire. The Supreme Court today

decided that negligent-hiring claims against transportation brokers is allowed.

What does this mean?

This decision is considered "industry-defining", as experts anticipate a significant

rise in insurance costs and litigation risk for the brokerage community.

How much of the industry can be affected by the decision?

Importantly, brokers currently account for ~30% of the ~$400b for-hire trucking

market. And among that 30%, there is significant fragmentation, with the top

broker, CHRW (Buy; $163), maintaining about 12% market share, the top 100

maintaining ~40% of share, leaving 60% in the hands of smaller brokers (see slide

12, 50 and 51). All of these brokers will likely need additional insurance given this

morning’s news.

How much would such insurance needs cost?

In fairness, we haven’t derived a confident estimate for this. In our March 2026

report on this topic, however, we discussed LSTR’s 400% increase in insurance

premiums related to excess coverage for commercial trucking liabilities in excess

of $10 million over the past five years. Now, brokers may not be required to