Axalta: Green Shoots in Refinish

Research evidence excerpt

Axalta: Green Shoots in Refinish

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Axalta 13 May 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States AXTA.N AXTA US Price target (USD) 37.00 Price at 12 May 26 27.79

52-week range 35.57 – 25.44

Industrials

Chemicals / Commodity Valuation & Risks

Green Shoots in Refinish

David Begleiter

Refinish market stabilizing. Newco a show me story. Maintain Hold Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473 We are maintaining our Hold rating on Axalta following the company’s Q1 release

as i) EBITDA beat by 5%, ii) Q2 guidance was in-line with expectations and iii) ’26 Emily Fusco

EBITDA guidance was reaffirmed, albeit at the lower end of the range. Research Associate

+1-212-250-5162

In the quarter, the earnings beat was driven by FX and lower operating and

variable costs. Volumes in the quarter fell 6%. While in-line with expectations it

still marked the 6th consecutive quarter of lower volumes – with declines in all

four segments.

On Refinish, Axalta’s largest business (40% of sales, 60% of EBITDA), the news

was mixed. On the negative side, Refinish volumes fell 8% in the quarter (versus

down a similar 8% in Q1) and marking the 7th straight quarter of lower volumes.

Similar to prior quarters, the volume decline was driven by lower claims activity

and shifting customer order patterns. On the positive side, the business had a

record amount of net body shop wins in the quarter (up 10%), management

announced it intends to implement mid-single digit pricing in ’26 to offset higher

raw material cost and most importantly, Axalta stated it is seeing signs of a more

stable market as destocking trends are abating and claims activity is expected to

improve sequentially driven by moderating auto insurance premiums, rising used