Q1/26: AFFO Growth Pushed Out Again, But New Forecast Should Be More Durable

Research evidence excerpt

Q1/26: AFFO Growth Pushed Out Again, But New Forecast Should Be More Durable

Real Estate/REITs

Nexus Industrial REIT

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA EARNINGS UPDATE

May 12, 2026

Price: C$7.79 (05/12/2026) Q1/26: AFFO Growth Pushed Out Again, But

Price Target: C$8.00 New Forecast Should Be More Durable

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 65/100

Sam Damiani, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 983 9640

Post the conf. call commentary and after clarification on contributions to FFO, we call the

sam.damiani@tdsecurities.com

Q1 results slightly negative. This latest decline in occupancy once again pushes out NXR's

Linda Wang^ re-acceleration in AFFO growth. That said, we see our revised forecast as more durable,

416 983 9259 particularly with the recent debt stack refinancings. Relative valuation vs peers remains fair

linda.wang@tdsecurities.com

and we reiterate our HOLD rating.

Key Data

Symbol TSX: NXR.UN-T Impact: SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE

Beta: 1.54 ■Our AFFO/unit estimates fall 6%/7% for 2026/2027 following the Q1 print that saw

52-Week Range: C$8.39-C$7.07 occupancy decline 90bps. Q1 AFFO/unit (our calc, which excludes lease termination fee

Market Cap: C$756.0MM income - the extent of which wasn't immediately clear from the disclosures) of $0.138

Current Dist per Unit: $0.64 was -7% y/y and -5% vs our est. Q1 Normalized FFO/unit was largely inline with our est./

Current Dist Yield: 8.2% consensus at $0.182 (-2% y/y), aided by 0.5 cents net contribution from non-recurring NOI.

Units O/S (f.d.) (mm): 97.4

■We now model 3.4% SPNOI growth in 2026, accelerating to 5.3% in 2027 based on an

Float Units (mm): 66.6

assumed occupancy recovery. Our forecast y/y growth in AFFO/unit is now much more

Enterprise Value

C$2,074.7 modest in 2026 at 2%, but accelerates to over 10% in 2027. The 2-year CAGR falls to 6%(MM):