FOOD PRODUCTS : U.S. Nielsen Quick Take - Data Ending 05/02/26

Research evidence excerpt

FOOD PRODUCTS : U.S. Nielsen Quick Take - Data Ending 05/02/26

EQUITIES

FOOD & HPC

FOOD PRODUCTS

FLASH NOTE

U.S. Nielsen Quick Take – Data Ending 05/02/26

12 MAY 2026 Sector Research Report Production time: 13:02* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Max Gumport BNP Paribas Securities Corp (1) (+1) 917 583 4529 max.gumport@us.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

This morning, we received updated U.S. Nielsen data through 05/02/26.

BNPP Exane View:

While we typically caution that two weeks of data does not make a trend, today’s Nielsen release is particularly muddied

due to comparing against a later Easter in the year-ago period. Specifically, the two weeks in the year-ago period

contain the two weeks following Easter, while the current two-week period is now well beyond Easter. In general, the

week following Easter Sunday can be a smaller week of sales for most packaged food categories, but for some

categories, such as confectionery, it is typically a larger week of sales.

That said, after adjusting for Easter timing, we generally see results as a negative sign for the industry. Specifically,

dollar sales growth worsened by ~-270 bps from +0.1% YOY in the prior four-week period (ending April 18th) to -2.6%

YOY in the current two-week period (ending May 2nd) as the rate of unit decline worsened by ~-280 bps (from -4.4%

YOY to -7.2% YOY) and pricing ticked up by ~+30 bps (from +4.9% YOY to +5.2% YOY). For our part, we continue to

have a cautious outlook for the group as unit growth lags that of total food and smaller disruptor companies take

meaningful amounts of share across center-store categories as they offer products that are more aligned with perceived

better-for-you attributes (e.g. higher in protein, lower in added sugar, and no artificial ingredients).