Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

FFO Growth (Row 61) (%) (1.6) (3.2) 4.4 8.0

Dividend Payout Ratio (Row 66) (%) 79.8 83.9 80.2 74.0

Same Store Revenue Growth (Row

(0.1) 0.4 3.4 4.8

85) (%)

Same Store Expense Grrowth (Row

2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7

114) (%)

Same Store NOI Growth (Row 119)

(1.4) (1.8) 2.2 5.4

(%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Jobs vs. supply growth in key sun belt markets RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Development yields and value creation Population and job growth outpace already-

Funding needs/costs relative to acquisition positive expectations FFO per 8.46

volume/cap rates Projects under construction stall, leading to share 8.42 8.60

fewer deliveries than expected ($) 8.53

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Population migration trends reverse in favor of 6.12

DPS

coastal markets 6.06 6.43

($)

Higher for longer rate environment 6.15

100% North America Prolonged absorption of new supply

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 48.6%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

3/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month Refinitiv;exposuresMSPBheld withContent.MSPB.IncludesInformationcertainmayhedgebe fund

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / ShortSource: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For athe highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored