The Pipe – Diamond Intel: April - Fragile Midstream, Solid Demand

Research evidence excerpt

The Pipe – Diamond Intel: April - Fragile Midstream, Solid Demand

Idea

May 14, 2026 02:03 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MThe Pipe – Diamond Intel | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

April - Fragile Midstream, Solid Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Demand Adahna Ekoku

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Near-term diamond market conditions remain subdued, with Ferdinand Huber

cautious midstream restocking and geopolitical disruptions ResearchFerdinand.Huber@morganstanley.comAssociate +44 20 7677-2702

continuing to weigh on trading activity, despite resilient end-

market demand. Rough demand remains weak amid Exhibit 1 : India polished diamond export

manufacturing cuts and seasonal slowdowns. Slight LGD share volumes were below the 5-year range in April

losses. 3,000 $mn India Polished Diamond Exports Value (Monthly)

2,500

Midstream: slight destocking amid geopolitical disruptions. According to the 2,000

latest Indian trade data, rough‑diamond import volumes decreased 14% YoY and 5% 1,500

MoM, while values fell 29% YoY and increased 18% MoM (from very low March 1,000

levels). Rising export values despite lower volumes could point to improved pricing 500

or a more favourable product mix. Similarly, polished‑diamond export volumes fell 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2% YoY and increased by 9% MoM, while export values fell 19% YoY but rose 7% 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Average 2026 2025

MoM, pointing to a slight destocking. Against this backdrop, sentiment remains Source: GJEPC, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: March-August 2020 data

excluded from 5-year average/range due to impact of Covid.