DOWA Holdings: F3/26 Results: Higher Gold, Silver, PGM Prices Drive Growth

Research evidence excerpt

DOWA Holdings: F3/26 Results: Higher Gold, Silver, PGM Prices Drive Growth

Update

May 14, 2026 11:51 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MDOWA Holdings (5714) | Japan Yu Shirakawa

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Higher Gold, Yu.Shirakawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5432

DOWA Holdings (5714.T, 5714 JT)

Nonferrous Metals & Mining | JapanSilver, PGM Prices Drive Growth

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥10,000

Reaction to earnings Shr price, close (May 14, 2026) ¥10,025

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥597.0

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥2.9

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Consensus beat: F3/26 RP was ¥54.3bn (+24.6% YoY), above company guidance

and our forecast of ¥45.0bn and consensus of ¥47.5bn. Versus our forecast,

Environment and Recycling, Smelting, and Metal Processing all beat.

F3/27 guidance above consensus: RP plan of ¥80.0bn (+47.3% YoY) is above

consensus of ¥73.4bn and our forecast of ¥68.0bn. Dowa factors in Middle East

impact as a -¥5.0bn negative due to higher electricity & material costs. On a YoY

basis, the plan assumes a +¥4.9bn rebound from inventory valuation, +¥1.7bn from

higher volumes, and +¥11.6bn from increased equity-method earnings from overseas

zinc mines driven by higher market prices, driving a significant increase in Smelting

earnings. On the other hand, Dowa's assumptions for silver, gold, and PGM prices

are fairly conservative relative to current levels, suggesting upside potential. By

contrast, Dowa expects the Environment and Recycling segment to see earnings

decline due to lower PCB waste processing volumes and higher costs.