Amcor plc.: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Amcor plc.: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Amcor- plc.Amcor(AMCR.N)plc. (AMCR.N)

Organic volume momentum our key concern

PRICE TARGET US$42.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our base valuation is an equal blend of three methods: ▪We like AMC's market position and

P/E: A 55% discount to the ASX200 Industrials ex Financials, in line with the five-year exposure to defensive end markets. Of sales,

average (appropriate for defensives/yield stocks) applied to FY27e EPS. 30% comes from emerging markets, which

EV/EBIT-based SOTP: Peer-group multiples for flexible and rigid packaging segments, we think provides diversification.

applied to FY26-27e EBIT. ▪Negative organic volume momentum is

DCF: WACC 8.1%, terminal growth rate 2%. our key concern.

of Berry appears to be tracking US$51.44 ▪Integration

well.Consensus Price Target Distribution US$42.00 US$65.44 looks attractive at these levels MS PT ▪Valuation

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates but dependent on improved organic

performance.

RISK REWARD CHART Consensus Rating Distribution

75% Overweight

USD US$54.80US$54.80(+40.15%)US$54.80(+40.15%)(+40.15%) 25% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

US$42.00US$42.00(+7.42%)US$42.00(+7.42%)(+7.42%)

US$39.10US$39.10US$39.10

Risk Reward Themes

Special Situation: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

US$21.80US$21.80(-44.25%)US$21.80(-44.25%)(-44.25%)

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE US$54.80 BASE CASE US$42.00 BEAR CASE US$21.80

Higher earnings growth, multiple expansion Berry integration on track, volume Lower earnings growth and lower applied

challenged multiples

We increase our underlying earnings by 10%