Anhui Jianghuai Automobile: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile: Risk Reward Update

Update

May 14, 2026 09:22 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MAnhui Jianghuai Automobile | Asia Pacific Joey Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Joey.Xu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0337

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SS, 600418 CG)

What’s Changed China Autos & Shared Mobility | China

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SS) From To Stock Rating Equal-weight

Price Target Rmb47.40 Rmb40.80 Industry View In-Line

Price target Rmb40.80

Bull Case Rmb73.50 Rmb69.30

Shr price, close (May 14, 2026) Rmb47.50

Base Case Rmb39.00 Rmb37.90 52-Week Range Rmb58.81-34.10

Bear Case Rmb19.00 Rmb21.10

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Updated Components

EPS (Rmb)** (0.8) 0.8 1.6 2.2

EPS

Prior EPS (Rmb)** (0.2) 0.8 1.9 -

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for Anhui Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SS) has

been updated

Reason for change

We revise our estimate based on JAC's 2025 reported results/performance:

• Our revenue forecasts are lowered by 14% for both 2026 and 2027,

following a modest 2% miss vs. our previous 2025 estimate. This is because

we see a more mature (and slightly lower-than-expected) demand for the

incumbent Maextro S800, and future growth hinges on upcoming new

products;

• Our GpM forecasts are raised by 1.0/0.6ppts for 2026 and 2027 respectively,

following a 1ppt beat in 2025 - supported by the successful debut of

Maextro S800;

• Therefore, our NPAT forecasts are lowered by 8% and 14% for 2026 and

2027, which also reflects our view of upfront operating expenses related to

new product launches in the next 1-2 years;