Brilliance China Automotive: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Brilliance China Automotive: Risk Reward Update

Update

May 14, 2026 08:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MBrilliance China Automotive | Asia Pacific Joey Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Joey.Xu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0337

Brilliance China Automotive (1114.HK, 1114 HK)

What’s Changed China Autos & Shared Mobility | China

Brilliance China Automotive (1114.HK) From To Stock Rating Equal-weight

Price Target HK$3.40 HK$2.90 Industry View In-Line

Price target HK$2.90

Bull Case HK$4.60 HK$4.10

Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) HK$2.98

Base Case HK$3.40 HK$2.90 52-Week Range HK$4.45-2.53

Updated Components

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS

EPS (Rmb)** 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Investment Thesis

Prior EPS (Rmb)** 0.5 0.4 0.4 -

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risks to Price Target / Rating Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for Brilliance China Automotive (1114.HK) has been

updated

Reason for change

We saw much greater pressure than expected on BMW-Brilliance operations in

2025, which led to a 25% miss versus our 2025 NPAT estimates. To reflect this

pressure, we make adjustments to our forecasts:

• We lower our NPAT forecasts by 7% for 2026 and 8% in 2027, reflecting

margin pressure on BMW-Brilliance sales, which fell 10% in 4M2026; We

introduce our 2028 forecasts.

• However, we raise our target P/Es for the value of the BMW-Brilliance JV to

4x for our base case (from 3x) and 7x for our bull case (from 5x). This

compares with the 7x implied by the market for BMW - covered by Javier

Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan). Despite our earnings cuts, we raise our target

multiples as we think some of the profit pressure has been reflected in the