Aviva: 1Q26 Initial take – Positive Wealth flows, improving trends in Canada

Research evidence excerpt

Aviva: 1Q26 Initial take – Positive Wealth flows, improving trends in Canada

Update

May 14, 2026 07:09 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAviva | Europe Hadley Cohen

Equity Analyst

1Q26 Initial take – Positive Hadley.Cohen@morganstanley.comDaniel Wilson-Omordia +44 20 7425-3289

Daniel.Wilson-Omordia@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3618

Wealth flows, improving trends Alexa Psillos, FASSA

Research Associate

Alexa.Psillos@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2384

in Canada

Aviva (AV.L, AV/ LN)

Insurance | United Kingdom

Reaction to earnings

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target 670p

consensus EPS Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) 617p

52-Week Range 701-568p

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mn) £16,529

Net debt (12/25e) (mn)* £5,299

The 1Q26 trading update from Aviva this morning looks solid, with the key positives EV, curr (mn)* £22,457

being strong Wealth net flows of £3.4bn (vs. £2.3bn in 1Q25) and positive rate * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

momentum in Canada GI, with the undiscounted CoR coming in at 91.8%, well below

2026 guidance for around 94%.

Looking further into the detail:

We would say total GI GWP of £3.4bn was in line, if not perhaps slightly

underwhelming compared to £3.7bn in 3Q25 (which is a like-for-like quarter). There

are various moving parts in this print.

Starting with Canada, rate momentum was strong, reflected through the

undiscounted CoR of 91.8%, well below 2026 guidance for c.94%, and 96.1% in 1Q25.

Moving to UK, this also looks in good shape. In Commercial, it should be well

understood that the market is softening, with £834m GWP this quarter (vs. £905m

in 1Q25).