Aviva plc: 1Q26 call - Key take-aways

Research evidence excerpt

Aviva plc: 1Q26 call - Key take-aways

Equity Research

European Insurance

14 May 2026

Aviva plc

1Q26 call - Key take-aways

The focus on the call was on bulk annuity volumes and

attainable IRRs, with little clarity on management's full year

expectations (1Q being seasonally low). Management expects AV.L/AV/ LN EQUAL WEIGHT

European Insurance NEUTRAL

commercial GI pricing to remain soft in the UK and Canada, Price Target GBp 690

but remain confident in achieving 94% COR for FY26. Price (13-May-26) GBp 617

Reiterate EW. Source:PotentialBloomberg,Upside/DownsideBarclays Research +11.8%

What was incremental from the call? European Insurance

1) Bulk annuities - Low teen IRRs in a competitive market, but signalling vague: Bulk Larissa van Deventer

volumes declined in a meaningful way, being reported 52% lower at £619m (1Q25: 1,277; +44 (0)20 3555 1527

Barclays 1Q26e: 1,100) (see "1Q26 first take - Strong CORe but soft pricing", 14 May 2026). larissa.vandeventer@barclays.com

Retirement margins were meaningfully lower at 1.2% vs 3.6% at 1Q25. Management indicated Barclays, UK

lower levels of quote activity, fewer (more profitable) small schemes, and increased Domenico Turco

competition. Management stated that Aviva continues to write IRRs in the bulk book in the low +44 (0)20 7773 3505

teens, and continue to generate returns above their WACC. They stand by their target of volumes domenico.turco@barclays.com

of £15-20bn from FY25-27. Management did not provide a confident message on margin Barclays, UK

recovery or pipeline strength beyond reiterating discipline and hurdle-based underwriting. They

highlighted that given their diversified operating model, they will deploy capital elsewhere if the

returns are not economical.