Tsumura: Company Contact Takeaways: Look for Guidance Hike

Research evidence excerpt

Tsumura: Company Contact Takeaways: Look for Guidance Hike

Update

May 14, 2026 07:04 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MTsumura (4540) | Japan Jaeheon Lee

Equity Analyst

Company Contact Takeaways: Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.comShinichiro Muraoka +81 3 6836-8443

Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5424

Look for Guidance Hike

Tsumura (4540.T, 4540 JP)

Pharmaceuticals | Japan

Key Takeaways Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

We contacted Tsumura following F3/26 4Q results. Key takeaways are below Price target ¥4,400

(including our takes based on the discussion). Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥3,702

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥283.2

We see F3/27 OP guidance (¥37.5bn) as having cautious assumptions for Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥1.6

domestic sales and SG&A.

Achieving domestic sales guidance is a must; we see overshoot potential for

volume guidance (+800k boxes) based on the firm’s initiatives and Apr-May

results.

Although we see some risk with China sales, management stressed that guidance

is not based on ambitious growth assumptions.

For SG&A, the firm plans in F3/27 to closely re-examine cost structure to

establish segmented P/L and ROIC as it moves forward with the company system.

Domestic business: Sales guidance is ¥167.6bn (YoY +4%, +0.8mn boxes). We

believe guidance focuses on achievability, with F3/26 volumes +0.5mn vs. guidance

for +1.0mn. While the plan for +0.8mn boxes assumes some level of effort with

initiatives, it does not look overly challenging. While there was a moderate recovery

in demand for Ninjin’yoeito and Yokukansankachimpihange after shipment limits

were lifted, Apr-May sales recovered to pre-shipment limit levels.

China business: Sales guidance is ¥46.0bn (+46% YoY), with the key growth driver