Archer Daniels Midland: CEO Meeting Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Archer Daniels Midland: CEO Meeting Takeaways

IdeaMframed the equity market disconnect around the idea that: i) weakness in

core sweeteners – though still in structural decline – is more manageable

than it seems and ii) upside from growth platforms – of which Carb

Solutions is the primary beneficiary (e.g., Biosolutions, precision

fermentation, decarb) – should more than offset the weakness in core

sweeteners.

• Said differently, the plan is to keep the company's wet mills running at high

utilization rates by swapping declining sweetener volumes with a wide range

of other products sold into a diverse set of end markets (some existing and

some new).

• ADM has already outlined ~$150M of segment OP contribution from 45Z

credits in 2026 along with ~$200M of annual OP from Biosolutions and also

believes it's well positioned to leverage the existing asset base to support

precision fermentation over the long-term.

And the trajectory of recovery for Nutrition?

• As noted on last week's earnings call, the recovery from the Decatur East

outage is expected to come in two stages with: i) a normalization on the cost

side of the equation as ADM shifts back to internal raw material sourcing and

ii) a recapture of lost market share.

• While cost tailwinds are already showing up in results, management noted

that the market share part of the story is still in the early innings and that

quality of product coming out of Decatur should help mitigate the need to

offer significant price concessions to win back share.

• The Flavors portfolio is still expected to be the main driver of the business

going forward with a growing focus on natural color reformulation

(potentially a $1B market in the US) as a more meaningful contributor in