Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group (8309) 4Q results: Stock likely to rise at first, but future performance depends on confidence in group’s growth investments

Research evidence excerpt

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group (8309) 4Q results: Stock likely to rise at first, but future performance depends on confidence in group’s growth investments

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 May 2026

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group

(8309)

4Q results: Stock likely to rise at first, but future Neutral

performance depends on confidence in group’s growth 8309.T, 8309 JP

investments Price (14 May 26):¥5,636

Price Target (Dec-26):¥5,690

Positive for short term, but some uncertainties for longer term: The 4Q Japan Equity Research

FY2025 results were solid, the FY2026 net profit guidance exceeded expectations,

Banks

and the large share buyback announcement of up to ¥50 billion was a surprise.

However, we sense that today's announcement could be the near-term peak of Takahiro Yano, CFA AC

positive news flow. The new medium-term plan for FY2026–28 announced today (81-3) 6736-8616

takahiro.yano@jpmorgan.com

suggests aggressive inorganic investment, and the shareholder payout policy has

Kohichi Takano

become more complex. The earnings contribution from SMTG's growth (81-3) 6736 8621

investments remains to be seen. kohichi.takano@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• New medium-term plan suggests aggressive inorganic investment: Figure

1 summarizes the new medium-term plan. The targeted increases in ROTCE

and net business profit from the FY2026 guidance to FY2028 exceed those for

ROE and net profit. The former are figures before such costs as goodwill

amortization, while the latter are figures including these costs. This indicates

that aggressive investments are to be made and result in increases in goodwill

amortization, but the expected improvement in figures that do not reflect these

costs is notable.