Seino Holdings (9076) 4Q results: Profit guidance exceeds expectations, but assumptions require scrutiny; initial reaction likely positive

Research evidence excerpt

Seino Holdings (9076) 4Q results: Profit guidance exceeds expectations, but assumptions require scrutiny; initial reaction likely positive

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

14 May 2026

Seino Holdings (9076)

4Q results: Profit guidance exceeds expectations, but Overweight

assumptions require scrutiny; initial reaction likely 9076.T, 9076 JP

positive Price (14 May 26):¥2,463

Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,800

Somewhat positive: FY2025 operating profit was in line, but FY2026 operating Japan Equity Research

profit guidance exceeds expectations. FY2026 guidance: The company guides for

Transportation (Land, Sea, Air), OTC

FY2026 operating profit to increase 10.1% YoY to ¥41.4 billion (we forecast ¥38.8 & Small Companies, Real Estate &

billion, Bloomberg consensus estimate is ¥39.6 billion). Management’s volume REITs

and unit price assumptions may look bullish, but the company aims to achieve AC Ryota Himeno

profit targets through cost cuts as well. Guidance for profit growth provides some (81-3) 6736-8639

reassurance amid concerns over the Middle East. FY2025 DPS is ¥104 and ryota.himeno@jpmorgan.com

FY2026 guidance is also ¥104 (dividend payout ratio: 61.5%). Seino intends to JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

keep DOE at 4.0% and the dividend payout ratio below 100%.

• Volume and unit prices: In FY2025, volume was down 1.1% YoY in 1Q,

down 1.1% in 2Q, up 0.6% in 3Q, up 0.4% in 4Q, and down 0.6% for the full

year (guidance: -0.5%). Unit prices rose 5.0% YoY in 1Q FY2025, 4.0% in 2Q,

3.0% in 3Q, 2.8% in 4Q, and 3.7% for the full year (guidance: +4.5%). Since

January, the company has initiated negotiations with shippers on individual

contracts and is shifting to contracts based on distance and weight, but growth

rates appear to have peaked.