Trane Technologies 1Q Wrap and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Trane Technologies 1Q Wrap and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 May 2026

Trane Technologies Neutral

TT, TT US

1Q Wrap and Model Update Price (13 May 26):$471.02

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$476.00

Prior (Dec-26):$460.00

The TT quarter beat low expectations in resi, but CHVAC orders/backlog were the

real highlight, providing improved visibility to the expected accelerating organic Electrical Equipment & Multi-

Industrygrowth as the year progresses. While the company is seeing growth in several

verticals, data center remains the key driver here, and the company is investing in Patrick M. Baumann, CFA AC

additional capacity to support demand, including for the Stellar acquisition, for (1-212) 622-0160

patrick.m.baumann@jpmchase.com

which it expects to triple the acquired sales over 2-3 years. Other areas of the

portfolio are more mixed, with resi sluggish (stabilizing, but not inflecting as per Chigusa Katoku

(1-212) 622-0855

Daikin’s recently provided market forecast) and transport choppy, though 2H and chigusa.katoku@jpmchase.com

‘27 expected to improve for both. Guidance was raised by the beat, with upside

Piyush Khaitan

from resi and Stellar, partly offset by Middle East headwinds, and we come away (1-212) 622-0605

increasing estimates by 1%/4% for ‘26/’27, reflecting higher expectations for piyush.khaitan@jpmchase.com

Americas CHVAC, with our Dec-2026 PT moving up in tandem (now $476 vs J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

$460 prior), keeping the multiple at a 20% premium to our group target. While we

are Neutral on the stock, our estimates have now moved up above consensus,

Key Changes (FYE Dec)keeping our view balanced in the context of valuation that reflects a 25% premium

(vs 20% historical average). Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 16.65 17.30 3.9%