2H margin recovery; Hapitat project downside risk

Research evidence excerpt

2H margin recovery; Hapitat project downside risk

Flashnote

12 May 2026

Consumer Staples Dist & Retail

CP Axtra ASEAN

Warasiree

Kengradomying

Key takeaways from CPAXT analyst meeting

• 2QTD SSSG remains broadly flat, reflecting still-soft domestic

consumption and cautious consumer spending environment. Management CPAXT TB Underperform

Price (at 11 May 2026) THB14.70

noted inflation remains a double-edged sword, as it pressures purchasing 12-month target THB12.00

power but could also support ticket size/SSSG through higher selling prices. 12-month TSR (%) (13.7)

• Overseas operations continue to be the key growth driver. Malaysia Volatility Index High Market Cap (Local) (m) 153,287

remains strong, supported by ongoing government stimulus measures, while Market Cap (USD) (m) 4,727

margins have improved following easing price competition in the alcohol Free Float (%) 15

category. Myanmar is gradually recovering as the country reopens more, 30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 7.5

while the Philippines business is still at an early investment stage.

• Targets 20–30bps margin expansion in FY26. Management guided that Investment Fundamentals

most of the improvement expected in 2H26 is due to an easier base in Year end 31 Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Revenue (bn) 517.8 538.6 557.3 576.6

4Q25, when the retail business faced an IT system issue and inventory Revenue growth (%) 1.8 4.0 3.5 3.5

losses. That said, margins may remain under pressure from an unfavourable EBIT (bn) 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.9

product mix, as consumers continue to prioritise stocking up on necessities. EBIT growth (%) (9.5) 6.8 5.9 7.3

Management emphasised retail pricing discipline and said it is unlikely to cut Reported profit (bn) 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.7

Adjusted profit (bn) 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.7