CP Axtra Copayment, Energy Costs, and Happitat Losses Weigh on 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

CP Axtra Copayment, Energy Costs, and Happitat Losses Weigh on 2H26

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 May 2026

CP Axtra Underweight

CPAXT.BK, CPAXT TB

Copayment, Energy Costs, and Happitat Losses Weigh Price (12 May 26):Bt14.60

on 2H26 ▼Price Target (Jun-27):Bt13.50 Prior (Dec-26):Bt15.50

We expect earnings growth to be weaker in 2H26, pressured by: i) negative impact

from the government’s copayment scheme, ii) higher energy costs, and iii) loss Consumer, Healthcare

contribution from Happitat. The stock’s valuation continues to be demanding at a Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA AC

~20% premium to peers. We lower our Jun-27 PT to Bt13.5, from Bt15.5, as we (66-2) 684-2679

lower our target multiple from 14x to 13x (sector average) to reflect a more kae.pornpunnarath@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited

challenging outlook in 2H26. Stay UW.

• Pressure from the copayment program in 2Q-3Q26. CPAXT expects the Style Exposure

government’s copayment policy to have a negative impact on its B2C SSSG

during the program period in Jun-Sep (in line with JPM’s view), as spending

patterns shift from non-participating organized retailers to participating

unorganized mom & pop shops and street food vendors. To mitigate such

impacts, the company looks to indirectly participate in the program through:

i) offering incentives to participating mom & pop shops and street food vendors

to shop at its stores, particularly B2B, and ii) adding more participating retail

shops and food court vendors on its retail mall. QTD, SSSG was flat for both

formats, with continued stockpiling demand on grocery items depending on the

news.

• Expansion on track; Happitat loss to kick-in in 2H26. CPAXT maintains

guidance for a ~Bt500m loss contribution from Happitat (~5% of FY26 NI),