India Lodging/Hotels: The Minibar Memo

Research evidence excerpt

India Lodging/Hotels: The Minibar Memo

Macquarie Equity Research India Lodging/Hotels: The Minibar Memo

• Govt throws airlines a lifeline amid jet fuel meltdown. Policymakers have authorised a

Rs50bn emergency credit scheme for airlines under ECLGS 5.0, offering liquidity relief amid

soaring aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, disrupted routes and mounting losses triggered by

the West Asia crisis.

Þ Our perspective: India’s aviation sector is staring at a brutal cost spiral. ATF already

forms nearly 40% of airline operating costs, but industry estimates suggest it has now

surged to 50-60% amid the West Asia conflict. The government’s aviation support

highlights their emphasis on the importance of domestic and international travel

ecosystem and buys airlines some time to manage the situation. With loans carrying

a 7-year tenure and 2-year moratorium, weaker carriers get a breathing room. But if

crude prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions persist, problems for airlines will

linger.

• Summer vacays may hit maximum turbulence. Indian travellers are facing a brutal airfare

surge of 40-50% across domestic and international routes as rising ATF prices, geopolitical

tensions and potential airline capacity cuts disrupt summer travel plans.

Þ Our perspective: India’s travel boom is colliding head-on with an aviation cost crisis.

Airlines are considering cutting frequencies on low-yield routes as ATF prices soar, while

passengers are already paying 15-50% higher fares across sectors ranging from Leh

and Srinagar to Europe and Singapore. The ripple effects are visible everywhere as

price-sensitive travellers are downgrading from full-service airlines to low-cost carriers,

shortening international vacations and shifting toward domestic destinations like the