The California King? Our Waymo 1Q26 Data Update

Research evidence excerpt

The California King? Our Waymo 1Q26 Data Update

Media & Internet May 12, 2026

Taylor Manley

taylor.manley@guggenheimpartners.com The California King? Our Waymo 1Q26 Data Update

804 253 1336

Michael Morris, CFA Key Message: We provide an update on Waymo usage trends each quarter following

michael.morris@guggenheimpartners.com California DMV release with analysis over a multi-year period. 1Q Waymo California 804 253 8025 usage data shows healthy, though slowing, Paid Ride growth of 115% (vs. +150% in

Charles Wilber 4Q, +192% in 3Q) to 3.9mm. We believe California remains the majority of Waymo

charles.wilber@guggenheimpartners.com commercial operations with the state accounting for 66% of 1Q Rides and reaching

804 335 3977 3.9mm consumers across 400 square miles. Based on company disclosure of 500k

Grayson Glenn Rides/Week towards end of 1Q (3/26 – Link), we estimate ‘Other State’ Ride growth of

grayson.glenn@guggenheimpartners.com 146% to 2.0mm. Waymo has expanded to six new cities in 2026 YTD (now 11 total)

804 253 8053 with 21 markets listed as ‘Up Next;’ we view London, Las Vegas, and San Diego as

most imminent. Waymo continues to expand existing Objective Design Domains (ODDs)

primarily to include freeways (e.g., Miami) and Airports (now in four following SAT

expansion). We note that Waymo will need to meaningfully accelerate Paid Ride growth

Ticker Price Rating in 2Q-4Q to reach company target of 1mm Rides/Week by year-end with key drivers

LYFT 13.87 Buy including footprint expansion and increased supply. While Waymo remains the distant

UBER 76.15 Buy U.S. Autonomous Vehicle (AV) leader, we estimate 37mm Rides in 2026 compared to

Uber and Lyft combined domestic forecast of ~5bn. Analysis provided within including

first quarter of Wait Time/Mile details.