Vistry Group: Q1 Trading Statement - First Take

Research evidence excerpt

Vistry Group: Q1 Trading Statement - First Take

Equity Research

UK Housebuilding & Construction

13 May 2026

Vistry Group

Q1 Trading Statement - First Take

First LookNew guidance is c17% below 2026 consensus and implies

what we view as a concerning H2 weighting, with minimal

profitability in H1. VTYV.L/VTY LN UNDERWEIGHT UK Housebuilding & NEUTRAL Construction

Price Target GBp 360Guidance implies 2026 PBT c17% below current consensus and a concerning H2 weighting:

Price (12-May-26) GBp 326H1 profit is expected to be significantly below last year, primarily due to the upfront profit

Potential Upside/Downside +10.6%impact of the actions to accelerate cash generation (i.e the impacts of heavy Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

discounting). However, with the benefits of an improved margin mix on active sites and an

expected step-up in demand for affordable homes, H2 profit is expected to be in line with H2'25

profit. Adjusted PBT for FY 2026 is expected to be "towards" the middle of the range, which is UK Housebuilding & Construction

c£225m PBT. Assuming "towards" means £10m below this would imply new guidance is 17% Emily Biddulph

+44 (0)20 3555 2947below current Bloomberg consensus. Flat profits y/y in H2 would imply a H1/H2 PBT split of

emily.biddulph@barclays.com

£37m/£188m. While we understand that long-term accounting methodology will create a Barclays, UK

particularly big profit impact on H1, we still view the level of implied H2 weighting as

concerning. Shruti Hanumant Dhumal

+91 (0)22 6175 1786

Cash generation commentary reads as land buying and WIP is now under closer control shrutiha.dhumal@barclays.com

Barclays, UKand the buyback programme has been paused: The group expects average net debt to be

significantly lower in H2.