Telecom Italia: Solid underlying trends

Research evidence excerpt

Telecom Italia: Solid underlying trends

Equity Research

13 May 2026

Telecom Italia

Solid underlying trends

We update our estimates for TIM post 1Q26 results. Our

investment case remains unchanged.

European Telecom Services

NEUTRAL

TIM 1Q26 results were broadly in line with low expectations. However, putting aside the Unchanged

seasonality and some non-recurring elements, trends remain solid. In domestic B2C, TI

continues to exercise its pricing power through differentiated offers on fixed and mobile,

Mathieu Robilliard

leading to solid ARPU growth. In B2B, contract backlog continues to increase and the +44 (0)20 3134 3288

revenue mix is improving. The equity story is now largely driven by the take-over offer mathieu.robilliard@barclays.com

from Poste. With c. 75% of the initial offer in Poste's stock, the c.+12% increase in Poste's BBI, Paris

share price since the offer was announced has supported TI's stock price with the implied

Maurice Patrick

offer now standing close to €0.69 vs €0.635 at the announcement. Our PT is €0.66 p/s for +44 (0)20 3134 3622

ordinaries, but if we include a number of likely positive optionalities we estimate an maurice.patrick@barclays.com

upside case of c. €1.0 p/s for the ordinaries (see Poste's offer undervalues TIM's potential- Barclays, UK

24 March 2024). Whilst we would not expect Poste to pay for all of these, we believe there Ganesha Nagesha

is room for Poste to increase its offer and still create value. We remain OW. +91 (0)22 6175 1712

ganesha.nagesha@barclays.com

Management roadshow and results conference key takeaways. 1/Poste's offer: Barclays, UK

management indicated that it would provide an update of its 2026-2028 guidance at the 2Q26