First Read: Standard Life plc "Best of Europe Virtual Conference 2026 -..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Standard Life plc "Best of Europe Virtual Conference 2026 -..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 17.3%

Forecast dividend yield 7.8%

Forecast stock return 25.0%

Market return assumption 9.4%

Forecast excess return 15.6%

Company Description

Standard Life is a traditional UK life insurance and savings business with some 13 million

customers and £300bn of assets under administration (AuM) across its closed (Heritage) and

open (Growth) businesses. Standard Life has a mix of closed (Heritage business, not actively

marketed to customers) and open (Growth business, where new business and policies

continue to be sold, such as Bulk Purchase Annuity (BPA)) businesses.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our valuation for Standard Life is based on the discounted value of distributable capital,

discounted at an appropriate Cost of Equity (CoE). We believe this is a better measure than a

dividend discount model given some capital may be retained for growth/M&A, in line with

company strategy. We value Standard Life’s entire business in aggregate, but model

management actions and underlying cash generation separately. Investors in Standard Life

are exposed to a wide variety of risks: regulatory and taxation changes, equity downfalls,

credit downgrades and defaults, falling interest rates and inflation. Although we reflect these

risks in our CoE, an increase in these risks or their outlook could lead us to increase our

assumed CoE and reduce our valuation. Standard Life aims to hedge most risks closely,

however, the main risk it still remains exposed to is credit risk - the main tail risk for the sector.

Additionally, Standard Life’s new business growth strategy, which is aimed at writing more