First Read: Mosaic Co "A Challenging Year Ahead; Maintain Neutral" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Mosaic Co "A Challenging Year Ahead; Maintain Neutral" (Neutral)

This is challenging the phosphate industry overall, with compressed margins

driving production curtailments that is putting further upward pressure on pricing.

But the ability of the market to bear higher prices is also limited by their high

absolute level and the pressure growers are seeing on input costs relative to crop

prices. Ultimately we believe this will be solved by a combination of 1) higher

phosphate prices, and 2) higher 2027 crop futures, but we see this likely not being

resolved until late 2026 and more likely 2027, driving the near term earnings

challenge for MOS.

Fertilizantes is also being impacted by poor phosphate production economics,

local market credit challenges and volatile fertilizer pricing impacting distribution

volumes/margins which we see driving EBITDA down >50% Y/Y to ~$255M.

Med-term we expect margins to stabilize and distribution volumes to grow which

will see Fertilizantes delivering ~$400-$450M in EBITDA/yr.

Potash pricing has been modestly better than expected, however the 2026

production target includes a tough 2H ramp with higher growth expectations than

peers. Costs have also been trending higher there as well. Our potash outlook is

reduced modestly near term with lower volumes outweighing slightly better

pricing. Med-term we continue to see risks of oversupply in the potash market

later in the decade that we expect to hold pricing/earnings below mid-cycle levels

while the supply is absorbed.

1Q26 adj EBITDA $416M vs. $460M/$433M UBSe/consensus

MarQ EBITDA of $416M was -10%/-4% vs. UBSe/cons primarily driven by a misses

in Phosphates (-$40M) and Potash (-$17M), with Phosphates EBITDA 26% below

cons and Potash ~6% below.