Unicredit: Stick with fundamentals – buy the earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Unicredit: Stick with fundamentals – buy the earnings

Accessible version

Unicredit

Stick with fundamentals – buy the earnings

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 92.00 EUR | Price: 70.50 EUR

NII key swing factor: c.7% ahead of consensus in 2027e 11 May 2026

UniCredit hedges against interest rate risk by building a portfolio of fixed-income assets

Equity

that mimic the repricing of their deposits. In Q1 alone, the bank increased this portfolio

by c.€10bn, to c.€216bn with a back-book yield of c.1.5%; every year, c.€20bn mature

and are reinvested at c.2.9%. That’s a large c.€0.4-0.6bn increase in interest accrual Key Changes

mainly in 2027-28e. We forecast c.€15.8bn NII in 2027e, +7% vs. consensus. (EUR) Previous Current

2026e net profit target ≥€11bn; BofA up to c.€11.5bn adj. Price2026EObj.EPS 90.007.28 92.007.58

UniCredit upgraded guidance for net profit 2026e to ≥€11bn, up from c.€11bn 2027E EPS 8.36 8.39

previously. ROTE 26% with EPS, DPS and TBVp/sh growing double digit. BofA adjusted 2028E EPS 9.62 9.65

net profit estimate of c.€11.7bn and c.€12.9bn in 2027-28e respectively compares to 2026E DPS 3.89 4.07

consensus at €11.4bn and €12.3bn, +3-5% ahead. These are metrics that would deserve

trading at a premium to the sector, not at a discount in our view. UniCredit trades on a Antonio Reale >>

P/E 2026e of 9.3x vs. Eurozone banks at 10.2x. This is unjustified, in our view. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

UniCredit-Commerzbank: win-win outcome +44antonio.reale@bofa.com20 7996 1763

UniCredit’s bid for CBK is live and closes on June 16. The offer creates optionality where Rohan Datta, CFA >>

either path, engagement or resistance, leads to the same destination, just on different ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

timelines and premium paid. UniCredit already holds a c.36% stake incl.