ITALIAN BANKS : Still fuel in the tank

Research evidence excerpt

ITALIAN BANKS : Still fuel in the tank

EQUITIES

BANKS

ITALIAN BANKS

Still fuel in the tank

The strength of Italian banks’ NII growth has often surprised over the past three years. However, the22 JUNE 2026

Securities Research Report question we receive most frequently is, what next? In this note we explore what we can expect from

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the recent movements in rates and what could be the impact on guidance. We also delve into the

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details behind deposit and lending growth. Unicredit remains our top pick in Italy.

Ignacio Ulargui, CFA

BNP Paribas SA A constructive picture for margins…(+34) 91 114 83 10

ignacio.ulargui@bnpparibas.com In this note we take a look into Italian margin evolution, looking at both the deposit and loan side.

Customer spreads have already absorbed the decline in rates over the past 18 months and they are

Giuseppe Grimaldi

set to benefit from the recent increase, which has already been reflected in the 40bp increase in 3mBNP Paribas SA

(+39) 02 8963 1735 Euribor. Additionally, we see incremental tailwinds for BAMI and Unicredit coming from structural

giuseppe.grimaldi@bnpparibas.com hedge reinvestment

…and further tailwinds from volumes

Deposits are the key for Italian banks, and we see further upside from volumes as we think that the

deposit beta in Italy will remain quite low. We expect deposits to maintain a growth rate of around

3%, accelerating after the BTP Valore placing in March-26. This growth in deposits is key for the

banks and more significant than lending growth that is still relatively muted. We see corporate lending

slowing down given macro uncertainties while household lending is still showing some dynamism. In