April Web Traffic Trends Point to Above-Consensus 2Q Case Volumes

Research evidence excerpt

April Web Traffic Trends Point to Above-Consensus 2Q Case Volumes

Flash Note Health Care | Healthcare Technology & Distribution

May 11, 2026

Align Technology, Inc Elizabeth Anderson Ayush Vyas 212-446-5632 646-551-8512

ALGN | $168.39 elizabeth.anderson@evercoreisi.com Ayush.Vyas@evercoreISI.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $220.00 Joanna Zhou Amir Farahani, CFA

Commentary 212-446-5659 646-551-8518

joanna.zhou@evercoreisi.com Amir.Farahani@evercoreisi.com

April website traffic data for ALGN’s key website (aligntech.com) was recently released, suggesting 2Q

visits of just over 700K cases for 2Q, above Street expectations for 2Q26 case shipments of ~681K.

Assuming conversion rates continue to trend in line with recent quarters and May/June data follow similar

patterns, revenues appear on track to be to meet and potentially beat the Street’s 6% yoy revenue growth

forecast.

For context, unique visitor data for the website shows a correlation of approximately 0.87 with case counts.

If web traffic over the next two months remains in line with April and conversion rates hold steady, the data

imply an estimated just over 700K cases for Q2 (see below). With only one month of data, visibility remains

limited, and the implied range is wide (~703K to ~736K). On a year-over-year basis, April unique visitors

increased by ~10%, while sequentially web traffic fell ~2.2%, indicating a slightly slower momentum vs

March (though historically April unique visitors tend to dip sequentially over March by L-HSD).

1st Month Visitor Data vs Actual Reported Quarterly Cases

1-Month Reported

Visitors Conversion Ratio Case #

Jan 1Q22 416.4 145.2% 604.8

Apri 2Q22 396.1 153.5% 608.0

July 3Q22 483.9 121.6% 588.6

Oct 4Q22 374.0 159.4% 596.2

Jan 1Q23 356.0 166.0% 590.9