Arm Holdings: ARM NDR Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Arm Holdings: ARM NDR Takeaways

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Arm Holdings 13 May 2026

Company Update

North America

United States

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 13 May 2026 (USD) 124.37

ARM.OQ ARM US NSM ARM

Price target 205.00

TMT

Semiconductors ADR ISIN 52-week range 237.30104.55-

ARMH US0420681068

ARM NDR Takeaways

Valuation & Risks

Ross Seymore

Today, we hosted Ian Thornton, Vice President of Investor Relations, and Alexis

Research Analyst

Waadt, Senior Director of Investor Relations, for a meeting with investors. Our key +1-415-617-3268

takeaways are below:

DJ Sebastian

Research Associate

Spotlight on AGI +1-415-262-2007

A key focus of today’s meeting was the impressive demand for ARM's new AGI

CPU, which has doubled from $1b at launch in March to over $2b for FY27/28,

driven by both original launch partners and new customers. ARM outlined a steep

revenue ramp expectation, with the first meaningful revenues of ~$100m in F4Q27,

rising to ~$900m in FY28 and ~$2b in FY29, keeping ARM directionally on track for

its $15b target by FY31. ARM highlighted AGI’s key differentiation being its power

efficiency, offering ~2x the performance-per-watt versus competing x86 solutions,

which ARM believes makes it well-suited to address the rapidly growing Server CPU

TAM that is expected to exceed $100b by FY31. Despite the strong demand, ARM

is not formally raising its AGI revenue target, citing wafer supply constraints. ARM

did specify that supply from its existing ecosystem could be obtained, but at a

higher cost than for the original $1b revenue ramp. Consequently, we see potential

upside to ARM’s AGI revenue trajectory should supply be obtained (also helping to

bridge the gap from ~$2b in FY29 to $15b in FY31), but with the higher costs of that