Verbund: 1Q26 results: new guide looks at risk at H1 on hydro forecast

Research evidence excerpt

Verbund: 1Q26 results: new guide looks at risk at H1 on hydro forecast

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Sell Verbund 13 May 2026

Company Update

Europe

Austria

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 12 May 2026 (EUR) 60.10

VERB.VI VER AV VIE VERB

Price Target (EUR) 55.00

Utilities

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 69.10 - 57.60

Electricity

OEZVY US92336Y1073

1Q26 results: new guide looks at risk at

Valuation & Risks H1 on hydro forecast

Olly Jeffery

Our new 2026 earnings forecast below bottom of new guidance Research Analyst

We update estimates following 1Q26 results, nudging up 2026 earnings c.5%. This +44-20-754-70055

is largely driven by a better Sales performance than envisaged. Our new forecast of

James Brand, CFA

€989m is below updated earnings guidance of €1-1.2bn. We factor in Q2 run of river Research Analyst

hydro coming in 1.7TWh under budget (vs 1.9TWh forecast) and €50m of further +44-20-754-74705

buybacks. The current hydro coefficient forecast for Q2 is 0.75, based on Volue

Insight data. If this remains the case Verbund may have to warn ahead of H1 results. Key changes

DB EPS (EUR) 2.70 to 2.85 ↑ 5.4%

Austrian profit levy uncertainty, Verbund still expect to contribute €160m in 2026 Revenue (EURm) 3,735 to 3,763 ↑ 0.8%

Verbund still assumes it will contribute €160m to the Austrian profit levy this year. Source: Deutsche Bank

However, the power price cap has not been lowered yet. If this remains the same,

Verbund will only have to make a marginal contribution. There are discussions Price/price relative

ongoing with government with regard to the methodology to be used. Ultimately, 125

we expect the Austrian government to make changes to ensure it can get the €400m 100

it is targeting from the energy sector this year and in the following years. 75