Verbund: The year of low visibility – remain U/P

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Verbund: The year of low visibility – remain U/P

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Verbund

The year of low visibility – remain U/P

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 57.00 EUR | Price: 60.80 EUR

Hydro conditions and political interventions to shape FY26 14 May 2026

Yesterday, Verbund lifted the lower end of its FY26 guidance on the back of 1) higher Equity

power prices, and 2) a better result in both the Sales and Thermal segment. We note

that the guidance assumes normalised hydro levels for the remainder of the year (YTD

Key Changeshydro levels at 0.71,implying ~0.66 QTD). In our view Verbund’s performance vs the new

guidance range will largely depend on hydro conditions going forward and the new (EUR) Previous Current

levy/tax proposals likely to be announced by the Austrian government over the summer 2026E EPS 3.34 3.16

(sensitivity inside the note). We remain cautious on Verbund regaining upside exposure 2027E EPS 3.52 3.68

to power prices and reiterate Underperform with an unchanged €57 PO. 2028E EPS 2.99 3.15

2026E DPS 1.67 1.58

Future of the levy to be decided over the summer

VER’s FY26 guide assumes a ~€200mn EBITDA impact from political interventions (o/w Julius Nickelsen, CFA >>

€150-160mn from the Austrian levy). With a Q1’26 run rate at <€10mn given power ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

prices trading below the levy’s threshold, the actual earnings impact will depend on the +44 20 7995 6027 julius.nickelsen@bofa.com

new measures proposed over the summer. Our base case remains that the current law

Peter Bisztyga >>

will be complemented by an additional tax/levy rather than replaced. Nevertheless, a Research Analyst

removal of the current power price cap represents the key upside to VER’s equity story. MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 0535

peter.bisztyga@bofa.com