BJ's Wholesale Club: 1Q26 Preview: Fueling a Cautious Consumer

Research evidence excerpt

BJ's Wholesale Club: 1Q26 Preview: Fueling a Cautious Consumer

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold BJ's Wholesale Club 13 May 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States BJ.N BJ US Price target (USD) 93.00 Price at 11 May 26 91.11

52-week range 119.08 – 87.97

Consumer

Retailing / Department Stores Valuation & Risks

& Broadlines

1Q26 Preview: Fueling a Cautious Consumer

Krisztina Katai

BJ reports 1Q26 earnings results on Friday, May 22nd pre-market Research Analyst

+1-212-250-0590 We anticipate BJ will see tailwinds in 1Q from consumer stimulus, as well as

traffic from higher fuel prices, which prompt us to raise our SSS estimate to +2.0% Jessica Taylor

from +1.6%. In our view, BJ is well-positioned to capitalize on fuel customers Research Associate

cross-shopping the club, a trend likely to persist if fuel prices stay higher for +1-212-250-3165

longer.

Nick Breckenridge

At the same time, we are cautious about extrapolating this performance for the Research Associate

+1-212-250-9179 balance of the year due to: 1) elevated cost pressures on lower-income consumers

(BJ has greater exposure vs. COST), which is exacerbated by SNAP program

reduction and item restrictions; and 2) intensified consumer value-seeking and

likely sharper price competition across the food retail industry.

Considering these factors, we maintain our annual estimates, balancing positive

near-term traffic trends and new club openings in key growth markets, like Texas,

with continued macroeconomic caution affecting consumer spending. Hold.

▪ Top-line: We model 1Q SSS growth of +2.0% (prior and Street +1.6%),

predicated on +2.1% in grocery and +1.0% in general merchandise.

Placer.ai TTM data implies 1Q SSS in line at +2.0%. We anticipate rising