Model Update: 1Q EPS Results

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update: 1Q EPS Results

TD Cowen BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings

Global Research May 26, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

We view BJ's as a growth company strategically positioned for market share gains. Ahead we ■ Membership & Unit Growth

monitor key catalysts that include: (1) addition of +10 clubs/year with infill across Mid-Atlantic ■ Assortment Transformation

& Northeast markets and expansion into adjacent Midwest & Southeastern markets, and (2)

assortment transformation progress, which should yield gross margins near high teens % as mix

benefits from increased general merchandise sales and private label loyalty. We expect +HSD

% to +LDD% EPS growth over the long term, driven by (1) +MSD% total revenue trends inclusive

of +LSD% core merchandise comps supported by traffic momentum with gas business tailwinds

and competitive grocery price gaps, and (2) consistent 3% to 4% EBIT margins supported by

+HSD% membership fee income growth. We value management's differentiated approach to

the warehouse club, which appeals to younger & wealthier consumers and unlocks stronger

lifetime value upside through unique digital capabilities and attractive credit card perks.

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ Unit expansion & omnichannel ■ Faster-than-expected market share gains ■ Increased competition & slower new unit

differentiation drive +MSD% household drive +HSD% household growth trends drive +LSD% household growth

growth ■ Core merchandise comps of +MSD% ■ Core merchandise comps decline (LSD%)

■ Core merchandise comps of +LSD% supported by strong traffic & private label on traffic & basket headwinds

supported by traffic momentum from loyalty ■ Assortment transformation takes longer