1Q26 P&C Earnings Wrap: Brokers Bruised, Underwriters Holding For Now

Research evidence excerpt

1Q26 P&C Earnings Wrap: Brokers Bruised, Underwriters Holding For Now

TD Cowen

Global Research May 11, 2026

Sub-Sector Review

Pricing is weighing on P&C stock performance across sub-sectors, mostly in commercial

brokers for now. On an exceptional 1Q26 print, CB traded down (1.2)% on the print and brought

carrier peers down (0.9)% with it. CB CEO Evan Greenberg struck a hawkish tone on property

pricing, calling current industry behavior “dumb” and emphasizing that CB is deliberately

shrinking shared-and-layered and large-account property - across admitted and E&S - where

pricing is inadequate. In 1Q26, North America property pricing declined 2.6%, with shared-and-

layered major account and specialty property written down 14.3%, while market pricing on

business CB walked away from was down 30–40%. Management framed conditions as late-

cycle, driven by excess capital and volume-based MGAs offering cheaper pricing and higher

commissions, suggesting a correction is inevitable. Prioritizing underwriting profitability over

growth at this stage of the cycle is rational, but may weigh on investor sentiment.

Commercial Lines

EPS results once again remained strong across our commercial lines coverage, generally

beating our estimates and consensus expectations. Underwriting results were largely better

than expected, helped by favorable prior year development.

That said, premium growth continues to be tempered by decelerating pricing. The Marsh Global

Insurance Market Index showed a (5)% decline in 1Q26, down vs. (4)% in 4Q25. By product line,

the global insurance rate change was as follows:

Figure 3 - Marsh Insurance Market Index

Annual Quarterly

2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26

Global Property +8% (1%) (8%) (6%) (7%) (8%) (9%) (9%)