Model Update: Core Growth Decelerates, But Reiterate Long-Term Thesis

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update: Core Growth Decelerates, But Reiterate Long-Term Thesis

Health Care Technology & Distribution: Drug Distributors

Cencora

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC EARNINGS UPDATE

May 11, 2026

Price: $261.08 (05/8/2026) Model Update: Core Growth Decelerates, But

Price Target: $400.00 Reiterate Long-Term Thesis

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 54/100

Charles Rhyee THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1376

We update our COR model following F2Q26, where COR missed on consolidated and US

charles.rhyee@tdsecurities.com

HC AOI, lowered US HC rev guide, but importantly maintained US HC AOI guide. While we

Lucas Romanski acknowledge concerns on US HC core growth decel and back half ramp, we remain confident

646 562 1352 in our LT generics/biosimilar thesis, at ~14x our CY27 adj EPS est, we believe shares overly

lucas.romanski@tdsecurities.com

discount concerns and reiterate our Buy rating.

Ethan Kim

646 562 1453 Impact to Thesis

ethan.kim@tdsecurities.com We update our COR model following F2Q26, where COR missed on consolidated and US HC

Key Data AOI, lowered US HC rev guide, and maintained US HC AOI guide. Adj. EPS guide was raised

Symbol NYSE: COR due to held for sale accounting for MWI. While we acknowledge concerns on US Pharma core

Beta: 0.65 growth deceleration in the quarter as well as the implied ramp in the back half of the year,

52-Week Range: $374.75-$252.74 mgmt. expressed confidence in 2H due to lapping FCS, ramping One Oncology accretion, and

easier cost comps in 4Q.

Market Cap: $50.8B

Net Debt (MM): $10,149.3 Estimates and PT

Cash/Share: $7.97 We est FY26/27 EPS $17.78/$20.15, from $17.55/$19.39. We maintain our $400 PT, based on

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 195.4 DCF analysis, implying shares can trade at 19x our CY27 EPS est. $20.65

Enterprise Value

$61,347.2

(MM):

ROE (LTM): 18.2%