TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

Global Research SECTOR NOTE

May 11, 2026 TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

■Consumer: Airlines

Tom Fitzgerald, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1304 Systemwide US capacity is scheduled to grow 0.2% y/y in 2Q26, with domestic up 0.4% and international down 0.4%.

tom.fitzgerald@tdsecurities.com US airlines continue to cut supply from forward schedules in response to higher fuel prices, with investors laser focused

on potential cracks in air travel demand. Industry margin laggards and highly leveraged airlines will be under the most

pressure to prune unprofitable flying.

Since our last report, Spirit announced its liquidation (see notes here and here) and Frontier loaded its full 3Q schedules.

Frontier cut 1.8pts from its 2Q schedule while United cut 2.2pts from its 3Q schedule. JetBlue added 3.4pts to its 3Q

schedule. Spirit's demise should raise the floor on economy class fares on top of fuel-related price increases. Investors

continue to debate the extent to which airlines can maintain higher fares without seeing elasticity. We continue to prefer

airlines with diversified revenue streams and more exposure to high income consumers. United and Delta remain our top 2

picks.

New in this report: We've added domestic growth and market share data by airport on p26-73 given investor focus on

shifts across specific markets.

Systemwide US capacity is scheduled to grow 0.2% y/y in 2Q26, with domestic up 0.4% and international down 0.4(see p.

3–5). Capacity growth plans for US airlines' top 20 airports by ASMs can be found on p. 12-27.

Legacy carriers are scheduled to grow 2Q26 capacity by 3.2% y/y, with domestic up 5.0% and international up 0.4%.

American will see the most growth at ORD (+17%), LGA (+9%), and LAX (+9%). Delta is expanding the most at BOS (+8%),