Q1/26; Strong Margin & Growth; Order Bookings Support Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Q1/26; Strong Margin & Growth; Order Bookings Support Outlook

Industrial Products

NFI Group Inc.

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA EARNINGS UPDATE

May 11, 2026

Price: C$21.40 (05/8/2026) Q1/26; Strong Margin & Growth; Order

Price Target: C$26.00 (Prior C$25.00) Bookings Support Outlook

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 70/100

Tim James, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 308 9773

Operational execution, margin strength, 2026 adj EBITDA guide (+10-22% y/y), 2027/28

tim.james@tdsecurities.com

forecast growth, and backlog supports positive outlook. These dynamics, historically large

Jasroop S Bains, CFA, CPA^ multiple discount vs comps and dissipating market concerns regarding supply chain/battery

416 307 9422 recall expected to contribute to 0.5x of multiple expansion over 12-months with the potential

jasroop.bains@tdsecurities.com

for additional upside to multiple.

Key Data

Symbol TSX: NFI-T Impact: Slightly Positive for Target/Estimate

12-Month Div (Est.): C$0.00

Maintaining BUY and increasing target to C$26.00 from C$25.00. Target change reflects

Beta: 0.55

shift forward of valuation period by one quarter to Q2/27-Q1/28, higher estimates from carry-

12-Month Total

21.5% forward of Q1 results and other minor modeling adjustments. Q1/26 adj. EBITDA of $86.1Return:

52-Week Range: C$21.76-C$12.88 million (TD Cowen/cons: $82.4/$81.7 million), +37% y/y.

Market Cap: C$2.5B

NFI reported a strong quarter, with adj. EBITDA, margin and ROIC ahead of forecast, and

Net Debt (MM): C$1,702.7

strong unit b:b. Adj. EBITDA margin of 10.2% (TD Cowen/cons: 9.2%/9.0%) was impressive

Cash/Share: C$0.89

despite lower-than-forecast deliveries and transit bus average selling prices (ASP). Fewer ZEB

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 119.4 deliveries (higher dollar value, lower margin %) and cost efficiencies drove strength.