BNPL Cards & In-Store Checkout: AFRM, KLAR Best Positioned – Ahead Of The Curve

Research evidence excerpt

BNPL Cards & In-Store Checkout: AFRM, KLAR Best Positioned – Ahead Of The Curve

Global Research INDUSTRY NOTE

May 11, 2026 BNPL Cards & In-Store Checkout: AFRM, KLAR Best

■Computer Services & IT Consulting:

Financial Technology Positioned – Ahead Of The Curve

■Diversified Financials: Consumer Finance

■Payments

Moshe Orenbuch THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1495 While e-commerce is still the primary driver of BNPL volume, in-store commerce is multiple times the size of e-commerce.

moshe.orenbuch@tdsecurities.com Thus, in-store should be a significant growth driver in the next 5-10 years for the industry. This dynamic, coupled with

Bryan C. Bergin, CFA the results of our BNPL card survey, leaves us more confident that the BNPL industry should continue to deliver above-

646 562 1369 consensus volume growth going forward.

bryan.bergin@tdsecurities.com

Hoang Nguyen, CFA Our Thesis

646 562 1337 Given the sheer size of the in-store commerce opportunity (i.e., almost 4x e-commerce globally), we believe there is very

hoang.nguyen2@tdsecurities.com

significant white space for BNPL providers to gain share in in-store. Indeed, BNPL providers across the board have been

making increasing efforts to expand beyond e-commerce and into in-store, which involves getting BNPL multi-use cards

into consumers' hands.

We believe if BNPL penetration in global e-commerce continues to increase gradually, while penetration in global in-store

checkout increases from the current minuscule level to ~2%, that could provide a tailwind for the BNPL industry to grow

in the 30%s range over the next 5 years. Each 1 ppt penetration of in-store commerce could add ~7 ppt to BNPL industry

growth over the next decade, by our estimates. This would ensure that the major players grow at current levels for an