LatAm Oils Higher Brent for longer; updating estimates and TPs

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oils Higher Brent for longer; updating estimates and TPs

11 May 2026

LatAm Oils EquitiesOil & Gas, Power & Utilities

Higher Brent for longer; updating estimates and TPs Brazil, Colombia, Argentina

◆ Hiking TPs by 8-20% in USD terms on USD75 Brent in 2027+

◆ Windfall taxes on E&P and refining sector: high in Colombia, Lilyanna Yang, CFA

Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

modest in Brazil, nil in Argentina HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com

◆ Retain Buys on PRIO, Petrobras, Pampa; retain Holds on +1 212 525 0990

YPF and Ecopetrol; higher TPs and new estimates Arthur Gennari*

Brazil and Argentina stand out amid ‘higher for longer’ Brent: We retain our Buy Banco HSBC S.A. arthur.gennari@hsbc.com

ratings on PRIO, Petrobras and Pampa, and Holds on YPF and Ecopetrol, after revising +55 11 2801 2616

estimates and TPs to reflect new Brent and macro assumptions. Unlike other regions

in the globe, LatAm offers a benign tax regime wherein producers keep a good share * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

of the oil price hike, fairly flattish as a % of the oil price hike. This said, Brazil and not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Colombia hiked taxes post-war to capture part of windfall profits. Also see: Oil Markets:

Higher for longer as Hormuz disruption drags – Raising price forecasts, 6 May 2026.

PRIO, PETROBRAS: Brazil introduced a 12% tax on exports and introduced tax cuts

and subventions for diesel so as to contain the negative pressure on inflation rates

and GDP growth. The level of subsidies directly paid for by producers or refiners was

smaller than anticipated, and the Lula administration has indicated the Brazilian

Treasury will foot most of the supply shock.