YPF: Higher px boost upstream EBITDA; lag in downstream; VMOS to add volumes in ‘27

Research evidence excerpt

YPF: Higher px boost upstream EBITDA; lag in downstream; VMOS to add volumes in ‘27

Accessible version

YPF

Higher px boost upstream EBITDA; lag in

downstream; VMOS to add volumes in ‘27

Rating Change - Credit

OW bonds from ’29 to 34’ on attractive carry & outlook 11 May 2026

Bonds yield from 6.2% to 7.9%. YPF prepaid US$747mm of 2026-2028 maturities in Global Emerging Markets | Corporate

4M26, sharply reducing near-term refinancing risk. We lower our OW recommendation Credit

on the '27 bonds to MW, given lower yields near 6%. All bonds are trading above par, LatAm | Argentina

Energylimiting capital appreciation for most, but we believe the positive momentum in the

Argentina oil & gas sector are supportive of carrying on our OW recommendations Anne Milne

between 7-8%. The '31 bond is backed by export receivables, justifying its slightly lower Research Analyst

BofAS

yield. Large capex plans (FY26 guidance: US$5.5-5.8bn) and Brent price volatility remain +1 646 855 4096

the primary credit watchpoints, but structural shale cost advantages and lifting cost anne.milne@bofa.com

reductions are supportive of the company's YE26 leverage guidance of 1.6-1.7x. Carlos Assumpcao, CFA

Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

carlos.assumpcao@bofa.comYPF total output 525 kboe/d; shale oil 205kbbl/d

Total production rose +8% QoQ, led by shale (+11%) and an NGL surge (+26%) on higher

output from Rincon del Mangrullo and Aguada de la Arena. Conventional crude continued

its planned decline (-4% QoQ), while natural gas grew 11%. La Angostura Sur now Exhibit 1: Pricing table

contributes 25% of YPF’s total shale production, with growth over 25x growth in the YPF Bonds yield from 6.2% - 7.9%

past 1.5 years – at a development breakeven cost of US$40/bbl. Security Rec Price Yield (%) Z-Spread