Lonza (LONN SW) Buy: Quality growth with durable momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Lonza (LONN SW) Buy: Quality growth with durable momentum

we expect to lift core EBITDA margins

above 32% by 2026, around two years ahead of prior mid-term expectations. Concerns 730.00

about a lower capex-to-sales ratio look misplaced to us; we see a disciplined pivot 580.00

towards higher ROIC as the heavy 2022–24 investment cycle matures. We also see the 430.00

lower capex-to-sales ratio as a disciplined pivot towards higher ROIC as the heavy 2022– 05/25 Target price:11/25700.00 05/26

24 investment cycle matures, rather than a sign of reduced ambition. A few factors High: 586.60 Low: 466.70 Current: 483.00

support our bullishness. Operating leverage from utilisation: As capacity fills, Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

incremental volumes should translate disproportionately into earnings, improving

profitability faster than the market currently assumes. Execution and technical edge: Yifeng Liu*,PhD Global Life Sciences & Healthcare Analyst

Strength in complex modalities (including ADCs) supports sticky customer relationships HSBC Bank plc

yifeng.liu@hsbc.com

and more resilient pricing. Quality premium supported by positioning: Lonza’s scale, +44 20 7 9919355

record and regulatory standing underpin a valuation premium versus Asian peers facing Rajesh Kumar*

heightened regulatory scrutiny. Advanced Synthesis resilience: While margins may Senior Global Life Sciences & Healthcare Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

normalise from peak mix, we see continued growth initiatives supporting a more durable rajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com

earnings base than current sentiment implies. +44 20 7991 1629

Sidharth Sahoo*

Catalysts to watch: Vacaville ramp-up milestones: evidence of faster utilisation gains Global Life Sciences & Healthcare Analyst