Lonza Group AG: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Lonza Group AG: Risk Reward Update

rmance Current Stock Price Price Target Secular Growth: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 18 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Jun 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE SFr 750.00 BASE CASE SFr 650.00 BEAR CASE SFr 450.00

Growth acceleration Strong outlook Industry overcapacity and slow technology

adoption

Top-line momentum across the CDMO Top-line momentum across the CDMO

business accelerates, supported by growing businesses is maintained, and new assets Large competitor capacity increases lead to

industry volumes, accelerating shift of coming online increases profitability, biologic outsourcing supply catching up with

manufacturing towards third parties, and driving steady margin progression. 11% demand, leading to lower capacity utilisation

price tailwinds, with the mix shifting revenue/13% EBITDA CAGR over 2026-29e; for large-scale commercial projects and price

towards higher-margin new modalities. Our CHF560m from Vacaville in 2028. competition. New modalities (mRNA, Cell &

bull case assumes 14% revenue/16% EBITDA Gene) ramp up more slowly than expected

CAGR over 2025-29e; CHF750m from and margins remain dilutive to the group

Vacaville in 2028. due to high manual input and lagging

automation.