ASML : A Tale of Two Apertures

Research evidence excerpt

ASML : A Tale of Two Apertures

EQUITIES

IT HARDWARE

ASML OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR1,319  TARGET PRICE EUR1,550 (UPSIDE 17%) TARGET 3%PRICE EPS 3%26e EPS 4%27e

ASML ADR OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD1,592  TARGET PRICE USD1,850 (UPSIDE 16%) TARGET 3%PRICE EPS 3%26e EPS 4%27e

A Tale of Two Apertures

ASML shares have performed strongly in 2026 (+42% ytd) but have lagged semicap peers (+70%11 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report ytd) largely on concerns about capacity constraints and customers’ longer term technology maps.

Production time: 05:17* (London time)

We believe it is now a contrarian long and in this report we 1) show how High NA adoption is

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

inevitable 2) incorporate recent positive newsflow around customer fab expansions. Reiterate OP.

Jakob Bluestone, CFA

BNP Paribas London Branch Advanced logic: High-NA insertion by Intel first in 2028 with TSMC following later in 2029-30(+44) 203 430 8468

Jakob.Bluestone@uk.bnpparibas.com TSMC recently reignited concerns regarding High-NA adoption at its tech symposium. In this report

we show how High-NA offers single exposure process simplicity from N3 to A10 for 1D patterning

Kohulan Paramaguru, CFA

and is the only way without increased complexity to achieve the required minimum pitch for A10 forBNP Paribas London Branch

(+44) 203 430 8546 2D. We find that at A14 High-NA is merely a nice-to-have (hence Intel but not TSMC adopting) with

kohulan.paramaguru@uk.bnpparibas.com marginal savings. But at A10 the savings become more meaningful (even if it still isn’t a no-brainer

to insert High-NA then). Ultimately High-NA becomes unavoidable, as double patterning cannot meet

minimum pitch requirements. We still assume High-NA insertion from TSMC/Samsung in ‘29-30.