Daiwa House Industry: F3/26 Results: Guiding for 2-digit YoY OP Decline, Given Materials/Equipment Delays and Soaring Prices

Research evidence excerpt

Daiwa House Industry: F3/26 Results: Guiding for 2-digit YoY OP Decline, Given Materials/Equipment Delays and Soaring Prices

Update

May 13, 2026 12:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MDaiwa House Industry (1925) | Japan Toshiyuki Anegawa

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Guiding for 2- Toshiyuki.Anegawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8914

Daiwa House Industry (1925.T, 1925 JT)

Housing | Japandigit YoY OP Decline, Given

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥5,400Materials/Equipment Delays Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥4,777

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥2,958.6

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥8.4and Soaring Prices

Reaction to earnings

Weakens our thesis Meaningful upside Meaningful revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

The firm said that amid reduced crude oil supply due to the Middle East, supply

delays & price increases are occurring in some construction materials/equipment.

Firm assumes Middle East impact stabilizes some by Sep, and factors in risks like

higher costs due to price hikes in materials/equipment & construction delays.

We see upside potential to property sale gains in F3/27 (guidance ¥95.3bn, down

¥12.0bn YoY).

We also see upside in areas such as domestic contract gross margins, but the

Middle East impact is significant and warrants close monitoring.

Results vs forecast: F3/26 OP and EPS beat consensus, driven by gains on large

property sales in the US. We infer that it was not necessarily easy to strategically

defer real estate sales and other transactions into the following fiscal year (F3/27).

Recommended action: F3/27 company guidance is well below consensus (spurred