Morinaga Milk Industry: F3/26 Results: Poised for Share Price Rebound; Overseas Earnings Environment Very Favorable

Research evidence excerpt

Morinaga Milk Industry: F3/26 Results: Poised for Share Price Rebound; Overseas Earnings Environment Very Favorable

Update

May 13, 2026 11:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMorinaga Milk Industry (2264) | Japan Tomonobu Tsunoyama

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Poised for Share Tomonobu.Tsunoyama@morganstanleymufg.comSeki Li +81 3 6836-8936

Research Associate

Seki.Li@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8934

Price Rebound; Overseas Haruka Miyake

Haruka.Miyake@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5421

Earnings Environment Very Jully Ussui

Jully.Akina.Ussui.Nakao@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5408

Favorable

Morinaga Milk Industry (2264.T, 2264 JP)

Top Pick

Reaction to earnings Food | Japan

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Stock Rating Overweight

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Industry View In-Line

consensus EPS Price target ¥5,300

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥4,264

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥345.8

Morinaga Milk's F3/27 guidance factors in risk related the DPSROE (03/26e)(03/26e) (%)* ¥93.08.0

uncertain Middle East situation but we do not think its growth P/BV, basic (03/26e) 1.5

P/E, basic (03/26e)* 18.0

opportunities, which are not enjoyed by other companies, are EV/EBITDA, basic (03/26e) 8.2

sufficiently reflected. We think today's share price dip adds to * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

investment appeal from a risk/reward perspective.

Key Takeaways

Morinaga Milk Industry reported F3/26 OP +16% YoY to ¥34.5bn (consensus:

¥34.3bn), including ¥17.5bn in Japan (-21% YoY) and ¥17bn overseas (+2.3x).

F3/27 OP guidance is ¥32bn (-7% YoY, consensus: ¥38.6bn), with domestic

earnings -9% YoY to ¥16bn and overseas earnings -6% to ¥16bn.