Paper & Packaging: European Pricing - May 2026 Edition: Kraftliner up €30/t, other grades flat

Research evidence excerpt

Paper & Packaging: European Pricing - May 2026 Edition: Kraftliner up €30/t, other grades flat

Update

May 13, 2026 10:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MPaper & Packaging | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

European Pricing - May 2026 Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystEdition: Kraftliner up €30/t, Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Paper & Packagingother grades flat

Europe

Industry View In-Line

Key Takeaways

Germany May 2026 updates: Kraftiner up €30/t as expected; cumulative increase

at €60/t and spread to testliner at €150/t (LT avg at €134/t)

Testliner flat following the €100/t realised in Mar-Apr; Q2 margin pressure but a

better H2 as lagged pricing comes through

Consumerboard: FBB flat following a mere €15/t increase in April as weak

operating rates and headwinds in net trade balance take hold

Graphic prices flat across the board despite price hikes, which may be realised

next month

Equity implications: SCA/Mondi most exposed to kraftliner though uplift was

expected; consumerboard (Stora, Holmen) and graphic (Holmen, UPM) lack

momentum.

European Containerboard charts

Exhibit 1: Testliner prices stay flat in Exhibit 2: Waste paper prices have

May having already recouped their inched higher from low levels

Waste paper prices2H25 losses 300

European Testliner 250

900 200

750 100

600 0

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

500 OCC, Germany (EUR/t)

TLB (LHS, EUR/t) Source: Fastmarkets

Source: Fastmarkets

Exhibit 3: Kraftliner-testliner spread Exhibit 4: Generic testliner spread has

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

rebounds to €150/t as virgin grade is rebounded towards 2Q25 levels companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.