NHK Spring (5991): 4Q25 results: Guidance a positive surprise; sector strength despite Middle East risks

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NHK Spring (5991): 4Q25 results: Guidance a positive surprise; sector strength despite Middle East risks

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NHK Spring (5991)

4Q25 results: Guidance a positive surprise;

sector strength despite Middle East risks

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 3,400 JPY | Price: 2,945 JPY

Guidance above medium‑term targets, an upside surprise 11 May 2026

Operating profit for 4Q announced at 15:30 on May 11 came in at ¥14.4 bn (YoY ▲15%), Equity

below guidance of ¥15.6 bn, Bloomberg consensus of ¥16.0 bn, and our BofA estimate

of ¥16.3 bn, but with no real surprise. Instead, guidance for FY27/3 calls for operating ShiroResearchSakamakiAnalyst >>

profit of ¥59.0 bn (YoY +29%), exceeding Bloomberg consensus of ¥58.1 bn and our BofAS Japan

BofA estimate of ¥56.5 bn, representing a positive surprise. While the guidance does not +81shiro.sakamaki@bofa.com3 6225 7919

appear to factor in risks related to Middle East tensions, it also looks conservative in Tatsuya Asada >>

some respects, and we would like to review the details. Given the stock’s perceived lag Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

versus peers such as Seagate, there remains scope for a re‑rating as an hard disk drive tatsuya.asada@bofa.com

(HDD)‑related name. Aika Kondo >>

Research Analyst

Earnings overview: Profit growth across all segments BofASaika.kondo@bofa.comJapan

Actual results had been at risk of missing expectations since the 3Q call, mainly due to

one‑off costs in Thailand, with apparent impacts also from timing delays in cost

recoveries. For FY27/3, guidance assumes USD/JPY at ¥150 and calls for +5% YoY

Stock Datarevenue growth and a ¥13.2 bn increase in operating profit. While Middle East risks were

not reflected given their limited near‑term impact, guidance looks conservative in some Price 2,945 JPY