Madison Air: A different kind of HVAC winner; niche markets + secular growth; Initiate at Buy

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Madison Air: A different kind of HVAC winner; niche markets + secular growth; Initiate at Buy

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Madison Air

A different kind of HVAC winner; niche

markets + secular growth; Initiate at Buy

Initiating Coverage: BUY | PO: 47.00 USD | Price: 42.20 USD

Niche HVAC player with strong operational focus 11 May 2026

We initiate coverage of Madison Air (MAIR) with a Buy rating and a $47 price objective. Equity

Madison Air has strong market share in niche HVAC markets, a solid operational focus,

and a residential business that is not tied to industry shipments. It serves a $40bn Andrew Obin Research Analyst

market distinct from the $200bn global HVAC industry with room for Madison AIr to BofAS

grow on the strength of brands including Nortek Data Center Cooling and Big Ass Fans. +1andrew.obin@bofa.com646 855 1817

Proactive M&A has been a key driver of company growth. Our estimates and the David Ridley-Lane, CFA

company’s forecasts exclude any future M&A. We forecast adjusted EBITDA to increase Research Analyst

BofAS

at a 10% CAGR over 2025-28e. Madison Air went public on April 16, raising $2.57bn. +1 646 855 2907

david.ridleylane@bofa.com

Growth driven by mix, not macro cycles Devin Leonard

Research Analyst

Madison Air’s markets are being driven by megatrends such as data centers, BofAS

manufacturing reshoring, energy efficiency, and an aging residential housing stock. Since +1 646 855 3698

devin.leonard@bofa.com

2021, Madison Air’s TAM has expanded threefold to $28bn. The portfolio has outgrown

U.S. GDP in most years since 2007, delivered strong margin expansion from 2023–2025.

In fact, its resi segment (34% of sales) has outperformed AHRI shipments in 16 of the

last 19 quarters by gaining market penetration rather than relying on cyclical demand. Stock Data