MAIR: Cool Debut: Solid 1Q26 Beat + Upside Guide + Faster Delever

Research evidence excerpt

MAIR: Cool Debut: Solid 1Q26 Beat + Upside Guide + Faster Delever

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Deane Dray, CFA (Co-Head of Global Industrials Research)

(212) 428-6465, deane.dray@rbccm.com

Thomas Wisnewski, CFA (Senior Associate)

(212) 301-1631, thomas.wisnewski@rbccm.com

Jeffrey Reive, CFA (Analyst)

(212) 618-3325, jeffrey.reive@rbc.com

Kenny Sim, CFA (AVP)

May 12, 2026 (212) 301-1628, kenny.sim@rbccm.com

Madison Air Solutions CorporationRESEARCH Cool Debut: Solid 1Q26 Beat + Upside Guide + Outperform

Faster Delever NYSE: MAIR; USD 41.07

Price Target USD 50.00 ↑ 48.00 Our view: Outperform-rated Madison Air’s debut featured a sizeable 15%

operating beat, healthy 11.7% organic sales, +29% orders, and upside Scenario Analysis*

2026 guidance set 3% above consensus. Looking ahead, 2026 guide looks Downside Current Price Upside

achievable/beatable with a record $2.5 bil backlog. Datacenter continues Scenario Price Target Scenario

to be the fastest growth vertical. Net leverage was a positive, starting at 32.00 41.07 50.00 55.00

22% 22% 34%EQUITY 3.0x with a plan to delever below 2.5x within twelve months. We would

downplay any concern on the tepid stock reaction given the impressive *Implied Total Returns

49ppts outperformance since the April-15 IPO. We like the company’s Key Statistics

upside in datacenter, high-margin custom products/solutions, and resi Shares O/S (MM): 509.7 Market Cap (MM): 20,933

positioning away from central A/C. Dividend: 0.00 Yield:Avg. Daily Volume: 0.0%NA

Strategic Ownership: Larry Gies: Equity (69%), Voting (96%)

Key points:

What’s changed/actionable: Solid 15% adjusted EBITDA beat; upside 2026 RBC Estimates

sales and EBITDA guidance. Madison Air reported a better-than-expected FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

1Q26 with a 15% adjusted EBITDA beat.